I've just finished reading Boomerang by Michael Lewis and that huge concentration of assets in real estate sounds awfully like Ireland before the crash of 2008 - on a tiny scale compared to China, of course.
Do you think that is valid comparison? (NB In many ways I hope it isn't as a crash like Ireland's on the scale of China would presumably be disastrous).
One difference between the Irish and Chinese housing markets is that in Ireland the gains were from Irish selling to other Irish, in ever increasing sales prices and volume - flipping in it's purest form. In contrast, the Chinese appear to buy and hold their real estate as long-term investments.
You can also see that with their investments in Australian real estate (where I now live). A lot of the apartments now being built are investment properties for Chinese buyers. In a lot of cases, the building is nearly sold out even before construction begins!
I wonder what effect the buildup of presumably unused, stagnant real estate inventory will have on markets like Australia's. I would imagine a pricing bubble, followed by a massive crash -- the extent of whose damages depends on the extent to which the real estate has been derived, repackaged, and traded with other financial institutions.
An oddly familiar pattern, and one that should give us pause.
(Sorry for the delay - I never think to check comments for replies.) In this case, the apartments do seem to be occupied. But Australia has had a housing bubble for some time IMHO. Government policies like negative gearing (tax write-offs for investors where rent doesn't cover the mortgage - who thinks of these things?!), 1st time buyers grants, stamp duty concessions, etc have kept prices from falling.
Sydney in particular has a very tight housing market due to lots of people moving in but not nearly enough apartments and houses being built. This has kept prices up, but there will have to be a drop at some point. The only question is when, not if, and how much.
"In a lot of cases, the building is nearly sold out even before construction begins!"
That sounds quite ominous - reminiscent of the property bubble here in the UK prior to 2008 (which was completely insane, but very tame compared to Ireland).
Rental markets are still strong for landlords. Too many people wanting a place to live, and not enough stock to fulfil the demands. The local governments are speeding up the permit process, but it's going to take a long time to catch up. Plus public transit isn't the greatest, especially in the high growth areas (Inner West and further out). The politicians are not looking long-term and thus screwing the people closest to Sydney out of an easier commute.
Luckily I don't work in the Sydney CBD, so my commute is pretty easy. :)
Do you think that is valid comparison? (NB In many ways I hope it isn't as a crash like Ireland's on the scale of China would presumably be disastrous).